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created: 2026-02-13T15:10
updated: 2026-02-13T14:23
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# 2026-02-13 - FLUX7 Build Day

## What Happened

### Built FLUX7 - Autonomous Kalshi Trading System
- Complete TypeScript/Bun trading engine
- 8 research-backed strategies implemented
- Command center dashboard (single pane of glass)
- Running in paper mode with $91.89 account

### Strategies Implemented
1. **Same-market arb** - YES+NO < $1 detection
2. **NO-NO arb** - Mutually exclusive events
3. **Spread arb** - Bid/ask market making
4. **Weather** - NWS forecast vs market pricing
5. **Economic data** - CPI/Jobs/Fed catalysts
6. **Live events** - Stream latency on tennis/golf
7. **Market making** - 2-sided quotes
8. **News edge** - Line movement detection

### Critical Research Findings
- **Polymarket blocked in US** - Cross-platform arb not possible
- **Same-market arb extremely rare** - Kalshi too efficient (<200ms gaps)
- **Real money is market making** - Not arbitrage
- **Data latency edge** - 30-40 second public delay on sports
- **78% of arb fails** due to execution speed (NBER study)
- **$40M documented profits** came from cross-platform + combinatorial

### Key Sources Read
- 4amclub.substack.com - Market making is the real strategy
- lines.com - Kalshi trading guide
- dev.to/zuplo - Kalshi API complete guide
- wethr.net - Weather market trading
- NBER study - Kalshi beats Bloomberg on CPI

### Dashboard Built
- Header: Balance, P&L, connection status, kill switch
- Sidebar: Quick actions, system stats, navigation
- Panels: Overview, Strategies, Opportunities, Trades, Logs
- Real-time updates every 2 seconds
- SSE log streaming

## Decisions Made
- **No profit guarantee** - Honest with Brandon about limitations
- **Paper mode first** - Run 2 weeks to validate before live
- **8 strategies active** - Diversified approach

## Project Location
~/Projects/flux7/

## Running Processes
- Engine: paper mode, 4000+ markets
- Dashboard: http://localhost:5173
- API: http://localhost:3000